Venice & TIFF 2025: The Awards Season Compas

 

Both Venice and Toronto (TIFF) have now delivered key winners. These festivals have become more than just celebrations — their outcomes map early trajectories for Oscars. Let’s unpack what the Venice Golden Lion, other Venice prizes, and TIFF’s People’s Choice tells us about which films might ride the wave.

Key Facts: What Won When

Venice Festival (82nd) — 27 August to 6 September 2025, Lido, Italy 

• Golden Lion (Best Film): Father Mother Sister Brother by Jim Jarmusch.  
• Silver Lion (Best Director): Benny Safdie, The Smashing Machine  
• Best Actress (Volpi Cup): Xin Zhilei for The Sun Rises On Us All  
• Best Actor (Volpi Cup): Toni Servillo for La Grazia  
• Grand Jury / Jury-related Prizes: The Voice Of Hind Rajab (Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize), Below the Clouds (Special Jury Prize), A Pied D’Oeuvre (Best Screenplay), Silent Friend gets Best Young Actor/Actress award, etc.  

TIFF (2025) — mid-September. 

• People’s Choice Award: Hamnet by Chloé Zhao  
• Runners-up: Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro), Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)  
• People’s Choice — International: No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook)  
• Other audience awards: Midnight Madness (Nirvanna the Band the Show the Movie), Documentary (The Road Between Us: The Ultimate Rescue) etc.  

What the Wins Suggest: Venice’s Golden Lion & TIFF’s People’s Choice as Signals

When reading the signs, consider both content and context: who wins, what type of film, where it’s produced, how it’s received, and how voters/audiences respond. Here are what I see from 2025 so far.

Venice → What Jarmusch’s Golden Lion Means

• Father Mother Sister Brother is a triptych of family stories by Jim Jarmusch. That means this year the jury leaned toward something more meditative, subtle, character-driven rather than spectacle.  
• Jim Jarmusch has prestige and pedigree. But this isn’t necessarily “Oscar-bait” in the mainstream style. The type of film that often wins Golden Lion doesn’t always cross well into Best Picture territory (or into major acting / technical categories) unless there’s a strong campaign.
• Other Venice winners to note: The Smashing Machine (directorally ambitious), Xin Zhilei and Toni Servillo in acting — these names matter. If these performances get U.S./UK distribution and visibility, they could be contenders in acting categories. Venice gives early prestige and press that can help / amplify later push.
• Also: Venice’s political and critical framing tends to shape narratives. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Grand Jury Prize), etc., tie into global issues; reward socially conscious filmmaking. That often aligns with Academy tastes in some categories, especially with changing jury / voting demographics.

TIFF → Why People’s Choice Matters

• Hamnet winning the TIFF People’s Choice is a strong signal, especially given its subject (grief, Shakespeare, adapted from a novel), its cast (Jessie Buckley, Paul Mescal), and its director (Chloé Zhao). Zhao already has Oscar wins/contenders from past; so this win likely adds fuel to its “Best Picture / Best Director / Acting” campaign.  
• Historically, TIFF’s People’s Choice winners tend to receive Best Picture nominations. The pattern has held since about 2012.  
• Runners-up also matter: Frankenstein + Wake Up Dead Man – both are Netflix or streaming associated. Big studios / distributors may lean in to promote them. Even if they don’t win everything, they get buzz and often later nominations in technical / visual / supporting categories.

Risks & Wildcards

• Festival prestige doesn’t guarantee Oscar wins. Distribution, marketing, release timing, visibility with Academy voters are essential. A Golden Lion winner might be beloved critically but if it’s hard to see in many markets, or ignored in the U.S., it may not compete.
• Audience awards can help, but sometimes the winner isn’t shown in eligible windows, or doesn’t resonate with voting bodies beyond festival audiences.
• Some films may be more “festival-friendly” — slow burn, metaphorical, less commercial — and may struggle for mainstream attention even though critics love them.

Which Films Look Best Positioned for Oscars

From what I’ve seen:

• Hamnet looks especially strong. Zhao’s pedigree, audience reaction, subject matter, and the People’s Choice win make it a frontrunner. If it secures strong distribution (theatrical release in U.S. / UK in correct windows), expect Best Picture, Actress (probably Jessie Buckley), perhaps Supporting if other roles shine.
• Father Mother Sister Brother could make Best Picture shortlist — but acting / directing categories less certain unless campaign is aggressive.
• The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie) could be a director contender. If its style & editing/production values are high, maybe tech nominations.
• Xin Zhilei and Toni Servillo: keep eyes on their performances; sometimes Venice acting wins turn into Oscar nods. But depends on visibility.
• No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook) via TIFF International People’s Choice: potential for nominations in Best International Feature (Foreign Language) and perhaps others depending on how “Oscar friendly” its U.K./U.S. release, subtitling, etc.

Concrete Predictions (for watcher’s list)

Here are some specific predictions / bets:

Film	Categories likely / possible Oscar nods
Hamnet	Best Picture, Best Actress (Buckley), Best Adapted Screenplay (if adapted well), possibly Costume / Production Design / Score
Father Mother Sister Brother	Best Picture possibility, maybe Best Director, maybe Supporting acting if any standout, but more likely critical recognition than mass awards
The Smashing Machine	Best Director (Safdie), maybe Best Picture if well promoted; technical nominations likely
No Other Choice	Best International Feature, possibly Best Picture if it crosses over well; maybe technical / cinematography if visually rich

What to Watch Next (to Strengthen These Signals)

• Release dates: which of these films are locking in U.K. / U.S. theatrical release before the Oscars eligibility cut-offs
• Reviews & critical consensus: are Hamnet, Father Mother Sister Brother, etc. getting sustained critical love (not just festival enthusiasm)
• Awards guild / precursor wins: producers, director, acting guilds, critic associations (NYFCC, LAFCA, etc.) — early wins there help momentum
• Marketing campaigns: trailers, visibility, festival re-screenings, awards campaigns, voter screenings

Practical Implications for Coverage / Strategy

If this were your blog or if you’re advising someone:

• Focus a post (or several) on Hamnet now — its TIFF win gives you fodder to argue it’s a serious contender. Analyse what it does well, what possible weak spots are.
• Feature Father Mother Sister Brother in Venice winners coverage, but with nuance: praise the achievement, but ask how it translates to Oscars (visibility, release, campaign).
• Track acting winners from Venice — put up short profiles of Troy actors / filmmakers like Toni Servillo, Xin Zhilei, Jarmusch, Safdie — audiences of your blog may not know them all, so educating builds interest.
• Do a “Oscars Watch” monthly update: after Venice, after TIFF, perhaps after NYFF / Telluride etc., chart which films are gaining momentum, which are fading.

Summary

• Venice’s Golden Lion went to a more meditative, artistically ambitious film (Father Mother Sister Brother), suggesting the Oscars season may embrace films that are less spectacle and more reflective.
• TIFF remains a major bellwether: Hamnet winning People’s Choice strengthens its Oscar campaign in a way few things do.
• Acting & directing winners from Venice could surprise if properly supported.
• In short: Hamnet looks like the film to bet on so far; others may creep in depending on release and attention.